Heathrow expansion faces climate emissions hurdle

The proposed expansion of Heathrow Airport faces significant obstacles related to climate emissions, according to advice from the Climate Change Committee (CCC). The committee has warned that the airport's third runway cannot proceed unless the aviation industry is compelled to reduce its carbon pollution. This stance challenges recent government indications of approval for the expansion project.

The CCC's assessment, requested by the government on its draft national policy statement for Heathrow expansion, found "no credible pathway" for the project to align with the UK's legally binding climate targets under existing policies for cutting aviation emissions. The committee also stated that the UK as a whole does not possess a credible plan to reduce emissions from aviation, which presents a substantial difficulty in meeting broader climate objectives.

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Flight costs and emission reduction

To achieve net zero emissions for the aviation sector, policies such as more efficient aircraft, sustainable aviation fuels, and carbon removal projects will be necessary. The CCC recommends that the airline sector should bear the cost of these measures, which would likely be passed on to travellers. This could lead to a significant increase in flight prices over the coming decades, potentially managing demand for air travel.

The committee estimates that implementing policies to cut aviation emissions to net zero could add between £150 and £400 to the cost of a return international flight by 2050. For example, a return flight to Alicante might cost an additional £150, while a journey to New York could see an increase of up to £400. The CCC suggested that early action could help phase in these costs gradually.

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Data from citizen panels organised by the committee indicated public support for the aviation sector to be responsible for the costs associated with its emissions, rather than burdening general taxation. There is also consideration for measures like a frequent flyer tax for individuals taking multiple flights annually, with potential exemptions for essential travel such as flights to Northern Ireland or the Shetland Islands.

Nigel Topping, chairman of the CCC, highlighted that aviation emissions in the UK have doubled since 1990, while overall climate pollution has halved. He noted that Heathrow is responsible for approximately half of the sector's emissions and that expansion alone could generate more emissions than any other sector. Mr. Topping stated that expansion cannot result in increased climate pollution and that the "polluter pays principle" must be applied.

Expansion can only be compatible with the UK’s climate commitments if the sector is required to manage and pay for the full cost of reaching net zero.

Nigel Topping, chairman of the Climate Change Committee

Industry and government response

Airlines UK, an industry body, responded by stating that the transition to net zero must be affordable. They highlighted the industry's ongoing investment in new aircraft, sustainable aviation fuel, and airspace upgrades, asserting they have a plan for delivery. Tim Alderslade, chief executive of Airlines UK, emphasised the technical viability of sustainable aviation fuel and carbon removals, urging a focus on their delivery rather than pricing travellers out of flights.

A Department for Transport spokesperson confirmed that any expansion proposal would need to align with net-zero targets. The government is investing in sustainable aviation fuel production and cleaner technologies. They also noted that expansion could bring significant economic benefits, including an estimated £40 billion to the economy and support for up to 60,000 local jobs. The department stated it would carefully consider the CCC's advice alongside consultation responses.

What happens next

The CCC has urged the UK to legislate policies requiring the aviation industry to cut or offset 100% of its emissions before granting approval for any Heathrow expansion. The revised "jet zero" strategy, expected in 2027, needs to outline a credible implementation plan for achieving net zero in aviation. The Department for Transport will consider the CCC's advice and consultation responses as part of its decision-making process.